CORSIA may face a supply shortfall of 40M to 90M credits to meet Phase 1 demand.
ICAO predicts airlines will need between 100 and 150M credits by Jan 2028 to meet CORSIA Phase 1 requirements. But there may only be 60M program-eligible credits on the market by then, according to a conservative supply analysis from AlliedOffsets (CORSIA Market Development and Forecast Scenarios, May 2025).
(Currently only 15M credits exist that fully meet Phase 1 requirements)
In a more optimistic supply analysis, there could be as many as 176M CORSIA-eligible credits available to meet Phase 1 demand.
In that case, supply would be available (assuming no demand from buyers not subject to CORSIA), but very tight.
Without enough credits on the market to meet CORSIA Phase 1 requirements, there’s a big risk that airlines won’t comply, countries will be hard-pressed to enforce the program with penalties, and the whole program will lose credibility.
The biggest factors limiting CORSIA-eligible supply are:
- The CORSIA technical advisory body (TAB) has approved credits from a limited set of registries, methodologies, and vintage years for inclusion in the program;
- Of carbon projects that meet the TAB’s registry+methodology requirements, most are early stage and the credits haven’t yet been issued. So, a lot needs to go right for these projects in the next 2 years for their credits reach the market in time; and
- The biggest factor limiting CORSIA Phase 1 credit supply is that few countries are yet set up to issue corresponding adjustments (CAs), which are a requirement for all CORSIA-eligible credits.